Argentina’s Trade Rebalancing, 2024–2026

Argentina’s recent trade record is best read as a three-stage adjustment rather than one uninterrupted boom. In 2024, export earnings recovered while imports contracted sharply. In 2025, both sides of trade expanded, but imports grew much faster than exports. During the first half of 2026, exports accelerated again while imports eased. Each phase produced a surplus, yet the economic meaning of those surpluses changed.

INDEC’s estimated 2024 figures show goods exports of US$79.721 billion, up 19.4% from 2023, and imports of US$60.822 billion, down 17.5%. Goods-trade turnover therefore remained almost unchanged at US$140.543 billion, while the balance swung to a US$18.899 billion surplus from a deficit in 2023. The improvement was not simply a price story: in December, export quantities rose strongly even as export prices fell. The annual picture combined the recovery of agricultural supply after the previous drought with weak domestic import demand during a severe macroeconomic adjustment.

The pattern changed in 2025. Estimated exports rose another 9.3% to US$87.077 billion, while imports climbed 24.7% to US$75.791 billion. Turnover expanded to US$162.868 billion, but the surplus narrowed to US$11.286 billion. This was a more balanced reopening of commercial flows: export capacity continued to improve, while firms and households demanded more foreign inputs, equipment and consumer goods. A smaller surplus was therefore not, by itself, proof of export weakness. It also reflected the normalisation of imports from an unusually compressed 2024 base.

Agrifood remained central. The Agriculture Secretariat reported 115.41 million tonnes of agro-industrial exports in 2025, 12% more than in 2024, and a record US$52.337 billion in value, up 9%. Soy, maize, wheat, barley, sunflower, sorghum, forestry, bovine products, peanuts and pulses accounted for 93% of exported volume. The distinction between value and physical volume matters: higher shipment volumes, not only prices, supported the result.

The first half of 2026 strengthened the export side. INDEC estimated exports of US$49.454 billion for January–June, up 24.4% year on year, while imports fell 3.9% to US$35.531 billion. Turnover reached US$84.985 billion and the surplus US$13.923 billion. June alone produced exports of US$9.055 billion and imports of US$6.861 billion. These are six-month figures and should not be annualised mechanically, particularly in a seasonal agricultural exporter.

Sector evidence supports the broader result. Agro-industrial exports reached 18.5 million tonnes in January–February 2026, the highest January–February volume in the past decade and 8% above 2025; value rose 7% to US$7.595 billion. Registrations in the Declaraciones Juradas de Ventas al Exterior (DJVE) system for shipments scheduled in March reached 12.6 million tonnes, 71% above the comparable 2025 figure. DJVE registrations are export-sale commitments, not completed customs exports, and must not be added to INDEC’s aggregate.

World politics altered both the opportunity set and the risk map. Argentina signed a reciprocal trade and investment agreement with the United States on 5 February 2026; the government said it covered tariffs, non-tariff barriers, customs procedures and investment and would be submitted to Congress for consideration. The government also presented the EU–Mercosur framework as a route to tariff relief and investment. Actual effects will depend on legal implementation, rules of origin, sanitary approvals and firm-level competitiveness.

Geopolitics also operates through freight, fuel, insurance and food-security policy. For a net food and energy exporter, higher commodity prices can raise receipts, yet the same shock can increase logistics, fertiliser and financing costs. Sanitary events create another non-tariff channel. On 17 July, authorities reported that the first half of 2026 had produced 24 new market openings and 268 reopenings after sanitary status was restored following animal-health disruptions. The record shows that export access depends on surveillance, certification and government-to-government technical work as much as tariffs.

Argentina entered mid-2026 with faster exports, a sizeable surplus and strong agro-industrial volumes. Sustainable trade development nevertheless requires stable rules, competitive logistics, traceability, sanitary credibility, diversified destinations and more value added per shipment. The record shows renewed capacity; the next test is whether that capacity becomes a durable, diversified platform.