Brazil’s Trade at Scale, 2024–2026

Brazil’s trade performance between 2024 and mid-2026 combined continental scale with a changing risk profile. The country preserved a large merchandise surplus, set an export record in 2025 and continued to benefit from competitive agriculture, minerals, energy and a broad industrial base. Faster import growth nevertheless narrowed the surplus, while new United States tariffs in 2026 showed how quickly political decisions can reshape access to a major market.

The federal government records approximately US$337.0 billion of exports, US$262.5 billion of imports and a US$74.6 billion goods surplus in 2024. Their sum places turnover near US$599.5 billion; this is an arithmetic derivation rather than an independently published headline. Exports were slightly below the exceptional 2023 level, while imports recovered strongly.

In 2025, exports reached a record US$348.7 billion, up 3.5%, and imports US$280.4 billion. Turnover rose 4.9% to US$629.1 billion, while the surplus declined to US$68.3 billion. Record sales did not prevent a smaller balance because purchases grew more quickly. A narrower surplus can coexist with productive investment, but reduces the external cushion if export prices or volumes turn down.

Agribusiness remained decisive. The Agriculture Ministry reported record sector exports of US$169.2 billion in 2025, equivalent to 48.5% of all Brazilian exports, and an agribusiness surplus of US$149.07 billion. That sectoral surplus exceeds the national goods surplus because other sectors taken together were net importers. Soy, meat, coffee, sugar, cereals, forestry products and processed goods support earnings and market reach, backed by logistics, inspection and certification.

The available 2026 data show continuing scale but not a full-year result. In June, Brazil exported US$36.3 billion and imported US$26.5 billion, producing turnover of US$62.8 billion and a US$9.8 billion surplus. These are consolidated monthly free-on-board figures. Partial July data existed at the editorial cut-off, but their incomplete reporting window made them unsuitable for a clean monthly or annual comparison.

Brazil’s response rests partly on diversification. China’s demand for food, ore and energy remains central, while the Mercosur–European Union framework and closer industrial cooperation with Germany can broaden market and investment channels. As Hannover Messe 2026’s partner country, Brazil showcased automation, energy transition, digital industry, machinery and low-carbon production. Rules of origin, sanitary approvals, carbon standards, port capacity and accessible finance will determine whether formal access becomes completed business.

The clearest geopolitical break appeared in the United States corridor. On 15 and 23 July 2026, US authorities announced additional Section 301 measures of 25% and 12.5% on defined Brazilian goods. MDIC assessed that the measures together reached 23.1% of Brazilian exports to the United States; overlapping products could face an accumulated additional rate of 37.5%, while 52.7% remained outside the new sectoral or Brazil-specific surcharges. This was not one blanket tariff on every shipment.

Trade had already weakened. Exports to the United States fell 13% year on year to US$17.4 billion in the first half of 2026. Crude-petroleum shipments declined 30.4% and semi-finished iron and steel 21.7%; the US share of Brazilian exports fell from 12.1% to 9.4%. Bilateral turnover dropped 12.8%. Tariffs are relevant, but product cycles, prices and demand also matter, so every decline cannot be attributed to one decision.

Food or energy price rises can lift export receipts and simultaneously increase fertiliser, freight and industrial-input costs. Shipping disruption may favour secure suppliers in some markets while making long routes more expensive. Trade fragmentation can redirect orders toward Brazil, but also exposes firms to competing standards and tariff regimes. The next quality threshold is more processing, credible low-carbon verification, reliable infrastructure and more firms able to export repeatedly.