Germany’s Trade Adjustment, 2024–2026

Germany’s 2024–mid-2026 figures describe an industrial exporter still operating at immense scale, but with a smaller surplus and a harder external environment. Nominal exports returned to modest growth in 2025, yet imports rose faster. Physical trade volumes remained below 2019 levels. In 2026, higher shipments coexisted with a sharp reduction in the United States surplus and a renewed energy-price shock.

Destatis’s current long-term series records 2024 goods exports of €1,549.6 billion and imports of €1,306.7 billion. Turnover was €2,856.3 billion and the surplus €242.9 billion. These values incorporate revisions after the first 2024 release. Exports fell 1.6% and imports 3.7% from 2023, so the surplus widened partly because inward trade contracted more sharply.

In 2025, unadjusted exports rose 0.9% to €1,562.9 billion and imports 4.3% to €1,362.5 billion. Turnover increased to €2,925.4 billion, while the surplus fell by €42.5 billion to €200.4 billion. China regained first place among goods-trading partners, with turnover of €251.8 billion, ahead of the United States at €240.5 billion. China is a supplier, competitor and customer; the United States remains a crucial destination for high-value German manufacturing.

Nominal values do not fully describe industrial activity. Export volume rose 1.3% in 2025 after three annual declines, and import volume 1.6% after two. Even after those gains, exported quantities were 6.3% below 2019 and imported quantities 4.2% lower. Prices raised the value of trade relative to the pre-pandemic period while the physical amount remained smaller.

In April 2026, calendar- and seasonally adjusted exports were €136.6 billion, 0.9% above March and 3.6% above April 2025. Imports were €122.1 billion, up 1.2% on the month and 6.2% on the year. The adjusted surplus was €14.5 billion, compared with €16.9 billion a year earlier. January–April adjusted exports totalled €537.6 billion, 2.1% higher year on year. These provisional adjusted readings should not be added directly to unadjusted annual totals.

The European Union remains the stabilising core. In April 2026, adjusted exports to EU members were €79.1 billion, far more than to any single non-EU destination. Common trade defence, industrial support and carbon rules also shape the competitive field; their effectiveness depends on predictable application that preserves the single market.

In the first quarter of 2026, German exports to the United States fell 12.1% to €36.2 billion, while imports rose 1.9% to €23.8 billion. The bilateral surplus contracted 30.5% to €12.4 billion. Motor vehicles and parts exports dropped 28.4% to €6.5 billion after higher US tariffs on many European goods. Exchange rates, product cycles and demand also matter, but the concentration of the decline in a directly affected sector makes the policy channel material.

China presents a different challenge. German companies require Chinese inputs and serve Chinese customers while competing with Chinese producers in vehicles, machinery, chemicals and clean technologies. Risk reduction must distinguish dependency from ordinary interdependence. Blanket separation would disrupt production; unmanaged concentration creates exposure to export controls, subsidy disputes and sudden regulatory change.

Energy risk returned forcefully in 2026. German import prices were 6.8% higher in May than a year earlier, the steepest rise since December 2022. Imported energy prices increased 37.2% and intermediate-goods prices 10.1%; Destatis linked the shift to war involving Iran and wider Middle East disruption. Germany’s response must combine resilient energy, infrastructure renewal, digital production, skilled labour, faster approvals and multiple sourcing options. A large nominal surplus cannot substitute for physical volume, productivity and market resilience.